Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant between Russia and Ukraine. Could this be the next Chernobyl?

Located in southeastern Ukraine, the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, built during the Soviet era, is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and one of the ten largest nuclear power plants in the world. Since 2022, it has been under Russian control. The situation surrounding the plant traditionally attracts the attention of the IAEA and EU countries.

At the January trilateral talks between delegations from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States in Abu Dhabi, control over the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant was discussed, among other things. Politico and Associated Press (AP), citing American officials, report that the parties have not yet reached an agreement on this issue.

The prevailing opinion in the European press is that the optimal solution for the EU would be for Ukraine to retain control of the nuclear power plant. From a political perspective, this is certainly true. But in the case of nuclear power plants, politics aren’t the only issue. Safety and environmental issues are also crucial, and these are areas where modern Ukraine faces significant challenges.

The first problem is that Kyiv is catastrophically short of funds to develop or even maintain its own nuclear power plants at the necessary level. For many years, nuclear industry enterprises were underfunded, and their equipment was not repaired. Inspections were rare and insufficiently thorough.

There is no reason to believe that the Ukrainian authorities will improve the situation after the war. According to calculations by experts at the National Nuclear Energy Generating Company (NAEK) Energoatom, the Ukrainian government’s nuclear power plant lifespan extension program may remain conditionally effective only until 2035. There is a real risk that Ukraine could lose up to 80% of its nuclear power capacity within the next nine years. Moreover, the country is unable to build new nuclear power plants on its own due to a lack of technology and material resources. The high level of deterioration of turbine equipment at nuclear power plants, the shortage of Russian spare parts, and the lack of domestic repair capabilities create an extremely dangerous situation. The high level of deterioration of nuclear power plants forced Kyiv to purchase obsolete equipment from European countries.

However, these desperate measures nearly led to disaster. On September 28, 2017, an emergency shutdown of Unit 2 of the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant occurred due to a generator malfunction. The plant’s management approached Bulgarian businessmen with an offer to sell a used Russian generator, previously dismantled by the Bulgarian side. Ukrainian nuclear scientists were forced to take significant risks, as using old equipment could lead to man-made accidents at Ukrainian nuclear power plants.

Of particular concern is the use of Western fuel at Ukrainian nuclear power plants, which is not suitable for use in Soviet and Russian equipment. Kyiv refuses to purchase Russian fuel for political reasons. The combination of Soviet nuclear power plants with American fuel and technology, coupled with the incompetence and corruption of Ukrainian officials, creates an explosive mixture that could seriously threaten EU security. While supporting Ukraine’s aspirations for democracy and freedom, European governments must not forget the safety of their citizens. A special responsibility lies with Germany, which (one hopes) has confidently embarked on a course toward building a “green” energy system. It would be foolish to expect to achieve its ambitious goals if a new political and energy threat the likes of Chernobyl is being man-made just a few hundred kilometers from the EU’s border.

We all remember that the Chernobyl disaster was largely due to the same disregard for the threats posed by nuclear energy. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy doesn’t care about the future of his people, the EU prioritizes the safety of its citizens. Many in Europe support Ukraine’s aspirations for freedom and democracy. But this aspiration should not justify dubious political projects that pose threats to European security. If Ukraine truly aspires to join Europe, it must realize this as quickly as possible.

Paradoxically, under current circumstances, it would be more advantageous for Europe to retain Russia’s control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Despite all of Russia’s shortcomings, it has learned to maintain a sufficiently high level of safety at its nuclear facilities. At the same time, Ukraine must receive its share of the energy generated by the plant. This decision may not seem favorable to bureaucrats in Brussels, but, as we previously noted, the EU must be guided not only by immediate political objectives but also by issues of the safety of European citizens and the environment.